Chance of the featured drop by number of pulls
How the math works
In Genshin Impact the base 5★ chance is 0.6%. From wish 74 it rises sharply (soft pity) and wish 90 guarantees a 5★ (hard pity). On the character event wish the 5★ is the featured one 50% of the time; if you lose that 50/50, the next 5★ is guaranteed to be the featured character. The weapon banner has an 80-pull hard pity, a 75/25 split and Epitomized Path.
The calculator runs this model from your current pity: the probability of a 5★ on each following wish, then the chance the first one is the featured character or the second one is — the guarantee. That gives the chance within your budget, the average and the worst case in wishes and primogems.
This is a model: Hoyoverse only publishes the base rate and the hard pity. The soft-pity curve is the community estimate from millions of recorded pulls (base rate until the threshold, then a fixed increase per pull up to 100%). Capturing Radiance and similar bonuses are not included, so the estimate is slightly conservative.
Common questions
How many wishes for a guaranteed 5★ character?
Worst case 180 wishes from zero pity (28,800 primogems): 90 to a 5★, and another 90 if the 50/50 is lost. With the guarantee active the worst case is 90. On average the featured character costs about 93 wishes.
When does soft pity start in Genshin?
From wish 74 on character and standard banners and from about 63 on the weapon banner. Most 5★ land between 74 and 80 — hard pity at 90 almost never happens in practice.
Is Capturing Radiance included?
No. Since 5.0 Capturing Radiance raises the effective featured rate above 50% (roughly 55% over many pulls). The model uses the base 50%, so the real chance is a little better than shown.
What is the 50/50 and the guarantee?
When a 5★ drops on a character event banner, there is a 50% chance it is the featured character. If it is not, the next 5★ is guaranteed to be featured — the guarantee stays until it fires, even across banner versions. Since 5.0 Capturing Radiance can also turn a lost 50/50 into the featured character.
How does the weapon banner pity work?
Hard pity is 80 wishes, soft pity from about 63. A 5★ is one of the featured weapons with 75% chance; if not, the next 5★ is guaranteed featured. Epitomized Path lets you choose which of the two: since 5.0 one fate point guarantees it on the next 5★.
How does the tracker know my pity?
From your imported wish history: it counts the wishes since the last 5★ on each banner type separately (character, weapon, standard) and checks whether that 5★ was featured, so it knows if the guarantee is active. When you are logged in, the calculator above is pre-filled with those numbers.
Stop counting by hand
Import your history once — the tracker keeps pity, 50/50 status and full statistics for every banner, forever.
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