Honkai: Star Rail

Honkai: Star Rail pity calculator — warps to guarantee and 5★ chance

Enter your current pity and how many warps or stellar jade you have — get the chance of the featured character within that budget, warps to soft and hard pity and the worst case in jade. Signed in, your real pity and 50/50 status fill in automatically.

What you have
Track your pulls here and the calculator fills in your real pity and guarantee — import history.
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Enter how many pulls you have
Pulls to soft pity
74
chance rises from pull 74
Pulls to hard pity
90
5★ guaranteed on pull 90
Expected pulls to featured
93
on average
Pulls for a 50% chance
80
≈ 12 800 stellar jade
Pulls for a 90% chance
155
≈ 24 800 stellar jade
Worst case
180
≈ 28 800 stellar jade

Chance of the featured drop by number of pulls

How the math works

In Honkai: Star Rail the base 5★ chance is 0.6%. From warp 74 it rises sharply (soft pity) and warp 90 guarantees a 5★. On the character event warp the 5★ is the featured one 50% of the time and a lost 50/50 guarantees the next one. Light cones have an 80-warp hard pity, soft pity from about 66 and a 75/25 split.

The calculator runs this model from your current pity: the probability of a 5★ on each following warp, then the chance the first one is the featured character or the second one is — the guarantee. That gives the chance within your budget, the average and the worst case in warps and stellar jade.

This is a model: Hoyoverse only publishes the base rate and the hard pity. The soft-pity curve is the community estimate from millions of recorded pulls (base rate until the threshold, then a fixed increase per pull up to 100%). Capturing Radiance and similar bonuses are not included, so the estimate is slightly conservative.

Common questions

How many warps for a guaranteed 5★ character?

Worst case 180 warps from zero pity (28,800 stellar jade): 90 to a 5★ and another 90 if the 50/50 is lost. With the guarantee active the worst case is 90. On average the featured character costs about 93 warps.

Does pity carry over between banners?

Yes, within a banner type: character event warps share one counter, light cone warps another, the standard warp a third. Collaboration warps (Fate/UBW) keep their own counter that carries only to the next collaboration.

When does soft pity start in HSR?

From warp 74 on character banners and about 66 on light cone banners. Most 5★ land between 74 and 80 — hard pity at 90 is rare.

What is the 50/50 and the guarantee?

When a 5★ drops on a character event warp there is a 50% chance it is the featured character. If it is not, the next 5★ is guaranteed to be featured — the guarantee stays until it fires, even into the next banner version.

How does the light cone banner pity work?

Hard pity is 80 warps, soft pity from about 66. A 5★ light cone is the featured one with 75% chance; if not, the next 5★ is guaranteed featured. The light cone counter is separate from the character one.

How does the tracker know my pity?

From your imported warp history: it counts the warps since the last 5★ on each banner type separately (character, light cone, standard, collaboration) and checks whether that 5★ was featured, so it knows if the guarantee is active. When you are logged in, the calculator above is pre-filled with those numbers.

Stop counting by hand

Import your history once — the tracker keeps pity, 50/50 status and full statistics for every banner, forever.

Import history